1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	313776	Defending America: Intercepting the Amerika Bombers, 1947-48	Current	41	8.32	5.54	2.00
			Estimated	100	7.66	5.61	2.48

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
Defending America is a solitaire, tactical level game which places you in command of an actual or experimental interceptor aircraft during a frightening look at what might have been in World War II. Each turn consists of one sortie, during which the player will fly a mission to intercept Amerika Bombers which are en route to bomb the mainland of the United States. As the player progresses, he may choose to upgrade to even more advanced interceptors in this alternate history game. It builds a strong narrative around the pilot as you look to earn skills, rise in rank through promotion, receive awards and survive a dangerous year above the Atlantic Ocean and America. The objective of the game is to conduct numerous sorties in the role of a interceptor pilot and rack up as many bomber kills as possible, with a special emphasis on preparing to stop atomic attacks. Pilots may use the experience gained to improve their odds of success by purchasing skills. Awards and technological advances via use of the technology track help to narrate the player's eventual goal – to become the “Scourge of the Amerika Bombers” and end the threat to the United States from the air. Game play moves quickly, following a set sequence of events that are repeated until the end of the game. Once you have your initial pilot along with your assignment, play proceeds by taking off when the enemy bomber force nears, then checking to intercept them before they get a chance to bomb a multitude of targets on the mainland United States. Combat consists of interception from your U.S. carrier or land-based aircraft, depending on where the player is currently located, then intercepting one of six historically modelled (albeit hypothetical) Amerika Bombers. After interception, landing operations occur, with the weather playing a factor again as part of the landing procedure. When the mission is completed, you will ascertain if any awards have been earned or Experience points gained prior to you next sortie. Here you can also spend Experience points if desired to gain skills and may request a new interceptor type if one is available. You will repeat this process by going to your next sortie until shot down and killed, or until the end of March 1948, should you make it through unscathed. While Defending Amerika is designed as a solitaire gaming experience, additional options for play are provided for both multi-player cooperative and competitive gaming sessions, and an option to link the game with Amerika Bomber: Evil Queen of the Skies Scale: Complexity: 4 out of 10 Solitaire Suitability: 10 out of 10 Time Scale: Weekly turns (individual sorties, 4 per month) Map Scale: Abstract Unit Scale: Individual aircraft, weapon systems, specific crew members, and ammo rounds Players: One (with option for two or more) Playing Time: 60-90 minutes Components: One Counter Sheet of 9/16" unit-counters Eight Aircraft Display Mats Nine Player Aid Cards One Combat Display Mat One Pilot Awards Display Mat One Air Operations Mat Rules Booklet One Logsheet Two 6-sided, and one 10-sided die Box and Lid —description from the designer

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/313776

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Defending America: Intercepting the Amerika Bombers, 1947-48? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Defending America: Intercepting the Amerika Bombers, 1947-48. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Defending America: Intercepting the Amerika Bombers, 1947-48. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	313776	Defending America: Intercepting the Amerika Bombers, 1947-48	1.00	5.54	8.32	2.48	41
1	2018	258184	The Battle for Ramadi	0.97	5.53	7.01	2.40	37
2	1974	6946	Wolfpack: Submarine Warfare in the North Atlantic, 1942-44	0.96	5.56	6.28	2.54	192
3	2014	57141	Codeword Cromwell: The German Invasion of England, 8 June 1940	0.95	5.68	8.01	3.00	135
4	2020	300591	Target for Tonight: Britain's Strategic Air Campaign Over Europe, 1942-1945	0.95	5.59	7.90	3.33	94
5	2019	269456	Interceptor Ace: Daylight Air Defense Over Germany, 1943-44	0.95	5.68	8.23	2.50	159
6	1991	8332	Red Beach One: Tarawa	0.94	5.50	5.60	2.67	93
7	2011	42673	Field Commander: Napoleon	0.94	6.25	7.72	2.80	970
8	2005	20734	Corsair Leader	0.94	5.72	7.64	2.43	238
9	2008	28829	Field Commander: Rommel	0.94	6.02	7.00	2.46	1,004
10	1986	8756	Eastern Front Solitaire	0.93	5.52	5.99	2.50	87
11	2013	144958	Iwo: Bloodbath in the Bonins 19 Feb – 17 Mar 1945	0.93	5.59	6.93	2.70	121
12	1996	4210	Stonewall's Last Battle: The Chancellorsville Campaign	0.93	5.78	7.55	3.20	297
13	1986	8461	First Team: Vietnam	0.93	5.53	6.34	3.09	70
14	2014	105023	Fleet Commander: Nimitz – The WWII Pacific Ocean Solitaire Strategy Game	0.92	5.64	6.89	2.58	247
15	1981	1631	Barbarian Prince	0.92	5.70	6.56	2.40	517
16	1983	3532	Damocles Mission	0.92	5.53	6.31	2.71	86
17	2018	227995	Raiders of the Deep: U-boats of the Great War, 1914-18	0.92	5.67	8.49	3.08	142
18	2012	124199	Raid sur Bruneval 1942	0.91	5.51	6.23	1.55	33
19	2016	154875	Silent Victory: U.S. Submarines in the Pacific, 1941-45	0.90	6.13	8.02	2.84	737
20	2019	139433	Fields of Fire 2	0.90	5.70	8.18	4.60	174
21	2019	268221	Custer's Last Stand	0.89	5.55	7.75	2.33	40
22	2008	28907	B-29 Superfortress	0.89	5.71	7.01	2.68	339
23	2016	204764	Space Vermin From Beyond!	0.89	5.54	7.39	2.20	38
24	1994	8001	Tahiti: Clan Warfare, Polynesia 750 AD	0.89	5.51	6.14	2.62	44
25	2010	43799	Coral Sea Solitaire	0.88	5.49	5.37	3.30	35

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Defending America: Intercepting the Amerika Bombers, 1947-48 while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	313776	Defending America: Intercepting the Amerika Bombers, 1947-48	5.54	1.00	5.54	8.32	2.48	41
1	2011	42673	Field Commander: Napoleon	5.88	0.94	6.25	7.72	2.80	970
2	2014	144189	Fire in the Lake	5.71	0.82	6.96	8.06	4.10	2,472
3	2012	123955	Thunderbolt Apache Leader	5.70	0.88	6.50	8.04	3.22	1,222
4	2008	28829	Field Commander: Rommel	5.65	0.94	6.02	7.00	2.46	1,004
5	2013	113873	The Hunters: German U-Boats at War, 1939-43	5.64	0.87	6.48	7.77	2.56	1,604
6	2008	24800	Conflict of Heroes: Awakening the Bear! – Russia 1941-42	5.64	0.84	6.72	7.50	3.00	3,014
7	2016	154875	Silent Victory: U.S. Submarines in the Pacific, 1941-45	5.51	0.90	6.13	8.02	2.84	737
8	2014	57141	Codeword Cromwell: The German Invasion of England, 8 June 1940	5.41	0.95	5.68	8.01	3.00	135
9	2009	38823	Conflict of Heroes: Storms of Steel! – Kursk 1943	5.41	0.84	6.47	7.71	3.11	1,470
10	2008	22877	Fields of Fire	5.40	0.85	6.37	7.85	4.23	1,194
11	2019	269456	Interceptor Ace: Daylight Air Defense Over Germany, 1943-44	5.39	0.95	5.68	8.23	2.50	159
12	2018	258184	The Battle for Ramadi	5.37	0.97	5.53	7.01	2.40	37
13	2010	65564	Hornet Leader: Carrier Air Operations	5.37	0.86	6.22	7.88	2.85	857
14	2005	20734	Corsair Leader	5.37	0.94	5.72	7.64	2.43	238
15	1996	4210	Stonewall's Last Battle: The Chancellorsville Campaign	5.36	0.93	5.78	7.55	3.20	297
16	1974	6946	Wolfpack: Submarine Warfare in the North Atlantic, 1942-44	5.35	0.96	5.56	6.28	2.54	192
17	2020	300591	Target for Tonight: Britain's Strategic Air Campaign Over Europe, 1942-1945	5.33	0.95	5.59	7.90	3.33	94
18	1981	1631	Barbarian Prince	5.26	0.92	5.70	6.56	2.40	517
19	2009	35614	Where There Is Discord: War in the South Atlantic	5.24	0.88	5.93	7.91	3.11	411
20	2018	227995	Raiders of the Deep: U-boats of the Great War, 1914-18	5.22	0.92	5.67	8.49	3.08	142
21	2014	105023	Fleet Commander: Nimitz – The WWII Pacific Ocean Solitaire Strategy Game	5.21	0.92	5.64	6.89	2.58	247
22	2009	35350	Field Commander: Alexander	5.20	0.87	6.00	7.10	2.32	842
23	1991	8332	Red Beach One: Tarawa	5.19	0.94	5.50	5.60	2.67	93
24	2013	144958	Iwo: Bloodbath in the Bonins 19 Feb – 17 Mar 1945	5.18	0.93	5.59	6.93	2.70	121
25	2013	134520	Phantom Leader Deluxe	5.18	0.86	6.00	8.06	2.65	490

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

## Warning in abbreviate(neighbor_name, 60): abbreviate used with non-ASCII chars

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	313776	Defending America: Intercepting the Amerika Bombers, 1947-48	Compass Games	Gregory M. Smith	Bruce Yearian	Aviation / Flight	Players: Solitaire Only Games	Dice Rolling
						Wargame	Players: Solitaire Only Wargames	Simulation
							Theme: Alternate History	Solo / Solitaire Game

Individual Game Analysis